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天气: 晴朗 心情: 高兴

  一月底,奥巴马政府宣布向台湾出售总额近64亿美元的武器装备。中方表达强烈反对,并迅速宣布四项反制措施:一)暂停两军计划内互访,二)推迟两军部分交往项目,三)推迟双方拟于近期举行的副部长级战略安全、军控与防扩散磋商,四)将对参与售台武器的美国公司实施制裁。

  对此,西方舆论纷纷抱怨反应过激。他们认为,奥巴马政府宣布的对台军售清单相当有分寸,并没有包括台湾希望的F16战机等攻击性武器。中国如此高调宣布反制措施,并首度提出对相关美国公司进行制裁,令西方人士担心,如此过分报复会引发恶性循环。

  然而时隔不久,白宫又对外宣布,奥巴马将于218日会见达赖。这无疑是雪上加霜,无可避免地再度引发中方强烈抗议。但正当大家期待或担心,中国将会宣布更多报复措施时,中方却出人意料的批准美国尼米兹号核动力航母战斗群于217日,也就是奥巴马会见达赖的前一天,访问香港。

西方舆论窃喜 中国网民哗然

  对此,西方舆论普遍视为中国政府正释放善意。合众国际社等美国媒体,将此举措形容为中方让步,并预测除口头抗议外,中方将不会采取实质性报复措施。

  众所周知,香港一直是美国军舰在远东的重要补给站,部署在西太平洋或是往返印度洋执行任务的美军舰船,常会选择香港停靠休整,进行维修和补给等。1997年香港回归后,中美双方达成协议,美国可继续使用香港作为补给站,但须事先向中方提出申请。中国政府将采用逐次审批的方式,处理美舰的访港申请。

  然而,自1997年后,中国曾数次拒绝美舰的访港申请,如1999年美国轰炸中国驻南使馆、2001年中美撞机事件、2002年美国允许台防长汤曜明赴美出席美台军事会议……;最近的一次,是2007年小布什批准向台湾出售武器及会见达赖。

  显然,拒绝美舰访港,已成为中方对美表达不满的一个手段。美舰访港,则成为中美关系的晴雨表。既然如此,此次奥巴马同样批准对台军售,并决定会见达赖,中方却没有一如既往地拒绝美舰访港,就难怪会令中国网民大呼看不懂,甚至将其视为政府软弱无能的最新例证了。

美舰访港并无特殊意义

  但事实上,美舰访港原本只是单纯的停靠补给,并非中美两军交流的一部分,也并无特殊的政治意义。

  长期以来,美舰访港次数相当频繁,每年都有6070艘军舰访港,上岸的官兵多达4.5万人一年。这些士兵大多会在湾仔地区活动,一些商店的四成的顾客是到访的美国官兵。据统计,美国兵在港期间日均消费可达200美金,每年可为香港带来超过五千万美元的经济效益。

  如果说美舰访港有任何政治意义的话,其实是中方多次拒绝美舰访港所造成的印象。这样的拒绝,除宣示立场、表达不满、同时会给美方造成一点小小的麻烦外,其实并无更多实际价值。而这次的决定显示,中方有意将美舰访港与形成惯例的报复手段脱钩。

  至于有西方观察家认为,这一举动说明中方的抗议将仅止于口头,则显然是一项误判。因为美舰访港并非中方宣布推迟的两军交往的一部分。事实上,白宫已证实,中方已取消或推迟了原定的两军互访安排,这说明反制措施正在实施中。

中美依存度高 报复并非翻脸

  至于中国网民希望政府应表现更强硬,甚至有军方人士如中国海军少将杨毅,向媒体公开表示:要打破美国幻想,中国应说话算数,要让美国在政治、安全和经济利益上付出巨大成本,让美国的核心利益也受到严重损失,这样它才会感觉得不偿失,才会悬崖勒马。中国反制越坚决有力,美国的反思越快。

  但事实上,中国的反制也必须掌握分寸。中美两国的依存度已越来越高。2008年,两国贸易额已超过4000亿美元,其中中国对美出口多达3378亿美元。而在国际事务中,美国需要中国,中国也同样需要美国。

  作为当今世界最有影响力的两个大国,中美之间有合作也有冲突,这是常态。而外交博弈的最高境界,就是在冲突中谋求利益最大化。当本国核心利益遭到伤害时,报复或许是必要的。但报复并不是为了翻脸。作为一种外交手段,它应该有理、有利、有节,最终要有助于两国关系走回正轨。

从高铁到大飞机 时代不同了

  而以拒绝美舰访港来报复,虽然有理,却未必有利。在这次中方宣布的反制措施中,首次提出将对参与军售的美国公司进行制裁,这才是引发西方舆论震惊恐惧的关键。相关公司如波音等,对此极为紧张,正密切留意事态的发展。

  中方制裁美国公司,在过去是难以想象的。一方面是很多美国公司在华尚无投资和业务,或其在华营收的比例微不足道,另一方面,是中国迫切需要西方的高科技产品,如大型客机等。在当时国内航空市场需求殷切之际,即便出台制裁措施,也只是积累需求,最终还是得大量购买。

  然而近年来,中国大手笔投入高速铁路建设。随着多条高铁干线通车,国内中短程航线的客运需求已开始遭到瓜分,直接造成机票票价下调、航空公司兼并重组、以及各大航空公司新飞机订单的减少。

  而百上加斤的是,中国正紧锣密鼓加紧民用大飞机的研发。两年前正式成立的中国商用飞机公司,去年携首款国产大型客机C919的外型样机,在香港的亚洲航展亮相。据称,这款飞机将于2014年首飞,2016取得适航证,并于今年开始接受预订。目前,中国几家大型国营航空公司均表示将会订购。

  值此时机,若遭中国政府制裁,波音在中国的处境显然将变得更为被动。这才是波音公司如此关注中方制裁宣示的主要原因。而在同样的背景下,允许美舰访港,不但体现了中方处理外交事务的理性和圆熟,也说明,中国已经有了比拒绝美舰访港更舒服的报复措施。

(2010-02-28)


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