符懋濂的个人空间

我们选择任何事物进行对比时，必须注意其可比性，否则毫无意义可言，甚至成为笑柄（如将老鼠与大象对比）。

对中国而言，世上最具可比性的国家无疑是印度，因为他在历史背景、社会经济、人口数量、国土面积、自然资源
等等方面，都与中国有可相提并论之处。因此，不但我们网友阿牛先生将两者进行对比，同时有不少外国网友也在津津乐道。以下即其中之一。


1. The Geo-demographics of China and India
Land Area: China 9.6 million sq km; India: 2.97 million sq km
Population: China 1.3 billion; India 1.1 billion
Labor force: China 791.4 million; India 496.4 million
Population growth rate: China 0.59% (death rate 0.697%, birth rate 1.325%); India 1.38% (death rate 0.818%, birth rate 2.201%).

2. Economy in General
GDP in 2005: China US$2.225 trillion; India US$719.8 billion or China US$8.859 trillion; India US$3.611 trillion by
PPP.

Economy sectors:
China: Agriculture: 15% of GDP, Industry 52% of GDP, Manufacturing 35% of GDP, service 33% In 2001
India: Agriculture: 24% of GDP, Industry 27% of GDP, Manufacturing 16% of GDP, service 48% In 2001
These data comes from World Bank. You can conclude that China's industry size is almost 6 times of India's after a very simple calculation. You can see how little India's industry is. More important, China’s industry is still growing much faster than India’s.

3. Agriculture
India has more arable land than China. Indian produced 250 million tons of grains in 2003 (Thanks for the good weather).
China usually produces 450 million tons of grains each year no matter how tough the weather is (record is more than 500 million tons) (Thanks for the biotech R&D and expansion of the technologies in agricultural filed in China).

India produces 87.6 million tons rice from 42.4 million hectares on the other hand China produces 178 million tons of rice from a mere 29 million hectares. There is only one big difference; China embraced ‘hybrid rice’ technology in a big way, while India has had a slow start.

In 1980, China grew 4100 kg of rice per hectare; India, 2000. In 2005, China grew 6300 kg, India 3000 kg. The difference in yields had increased from 2100 kg to 3300 kg per hectare. For wheat the comparable figures were 1900 kg versus 1400 kg in 1980; and 4200 kg versus 2700 kg in 2005. For seed cotton, 1700 kg versus 500 kg in 1980; and 3200 kg versus 800 kg in 2005. For vegetables, 14500 kg versus 8300 kg in 1980; and 19300 kg versus 11300 kg in 2005.

4. Industry
As data in “Economy in General” section shows, China’s industry scale is 6 times of India’s. China’s industry is still growing at around 16% pace for many years. That means one year increase in China’s industry revenue equals to the total size of India’s industry. The gap is huge.
China’s industry revenue is about 3.5 times of the revenue from agriculture, but for India, its industry revenue is almost equal to the agriculture.
Around 43 million tons of iron and steel was produced in India in 2005 (An important index of infrastructure construction.) China produced around 349 million tons of iron and steel 55% of the world cement (Another infrastructure construction index) was used in China.

By the data from CIA fact books, India produced around 36 million tons of oil (A natural resource index) in 2003 and will face the resource problem soon.
China produced 160 million tons of oil in 2003 and imported more than 100 million tons in the same year.

Here talks about the Sino-India trade in 2004. It clearly tells that India is only a raw material supplier to China and China mainly sells industrial products to India.

India’s average tariff fell from 56% in 1990 to 28% in 2004. By comparison, China’s average tariff dropped from 32% to 6% over the same period. That means, India has to use tariff to protect its weak industry. While, China’s industry competes against others fairly even in domestic market.
In 2002 the typical monthly wage of a manufacturing worker in India was US$23.80 while in China the figure was US$110.80.
Even India’s industry is under the protection of high tariff. India still has a huge trade deficit. The deficit could reach US$50 billion in the fiscal year of 2005-2006.
But China always has a trade surplus. I even don’t bother to provide the links.

5. Service Industry
Calculating from the GDP numbers of both China and India and the percentage of service industry in them, China’s service industry contributed US$742.5 billion to China’s GDP, it is almost the total of India’s GDP. India’s service revenue was only US$345.5billion.

Chinese airlines carried 138 million passengers in 2005, and the loads will nearly double to 270 million passengers in 5 years.
Passenger traffic grew to 52.12 million in the last fiscal in India, from 43.47 million in 2004-05, to register a growth of 19.9 percent.

The annual insurance premium currently collected in India is $23 billion, which is expected to increase ten fold to $ 239 by 2020. In the same period, China’s insurance premium will rise to $863 billion from the present level of $60 billion.

Retail sales surged 12.9 percent in 2005 over the year before, to 6.7 trillion Yuan ($847 billion). By 2020, industry forecasts say the market could expand to about $2.4 trillion.

India’s total retail market reached US $230 billion in 2005 and will grow to US$370 billion in 2011

India’s travel and tourism market was valued at US$42 billion in 2005. 340 million people traveled in 2005. The outbound travelers from India grew to 6.2 million in 2005. This was almost twice the number of arrivals witnessed by the country. That means only 3.1 million visited India in the same ti
China received 47.11 million visitors in 2005. This number should not include the vistors from Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan.
There were 31 million outbound tourists from China in 2005.
In 2005, inbound tourists reached 120 million (including Chinese from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan economies).
Overseas tourists contributed over $29.3 billion to the Chinese economy. But their contribution was far outweighed by that of domestic Chinese tourists, who contributed $66.7 billion.

In 2004, China’s service exports were US$62 billion versus US$40 billion for India. On the other hand, 60% of China’s service exports were travel and transportation services while in India the figure was 22%.
In 2003, India’s exports of commercial services other than travel, transportation, and finance amounted to US$18.9 billion. The figure for China was US$20.6 billion. In other words, China may already be ahead of India in selling
IT services to the world.

[ 本帖最后由 符懋濂 于 2008-10-3 20:35 编辑 ]